The business cycle dating committee
There were two reasons for selecting the earlier date.The first was described above -- the fact that quarterly real GDP and GDI rose strongly in the fourth quarter.Real GDP reached its low point in the second quarter of 2009, while the value of real GDI was essentially identical in the second and third quarters of 2009.The average of real GDP and real GDI reached its low point in the second quarter of 2009.There is no fixed rule about what weights the committee assigns to the various indicators, or about what other measures contribute information to the process.
The committee also maintains a quarterly chronology of business cycle peak and trough dates.
The committee concluded that strong growth in both real GDP and real GDI in the fourth quarter of 2009 ruled out the possibility that the trough occurred later than the third quarter.
The committee designated June as the month of the trough based on several monthly indicators.
The trough marks the end of the declining phase and the start of the rising phase of the business cycle.
Economic activity is typically below normal in the early stages of an expansion, and it sometimes remains so well into the expansion.The committee decided that any future downturn of the economy would be a new recession and not a continuation of the recession that began in December 2007.
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